ON KNOWLEDGE MATURITY AND BIASED NATURE OF STAGED DECISION MAKING IN A HIGH CONSEQUENCE INDUSTRY
DS 92: Proceedings of the DESIGN 2018 15th International Design Conference
Year: 2018
Editor: Marjanović D., Štorga M., Škec S., Bojčetić N., Pavković N.
Author: Svensson, Martin; Bertoni, Alessandro; Lanander, Maximillian
Series: DESIGN
Section: DESIGN SUPPORT TOOLS
Page(s): 465-476
DOI number: https://doi.org/10.21278/idc.2018.0480
Abstract
This paper explores and problematizes decision-making in a high-consequence industry which is characterized by the stage-gate process. We showcase that decision-makers do not differentiate between the types of knowledge used for modelling decisions and calculation of risks. This makes them susceptible to incorporating cognitive distortions—biases—into the stage-gate process. We conclude by amending the risk for certain kinds of biases with a knowledge maturity framework in order to outline conditions for pragmatic decision making.
Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, knowledge maturity, risk management, decision biases